tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post4119549760393983950..comments2023-10-22T11:22:37.889-04:00Comments on The Online Lunchpail ™: Poll shows Democrats with decisive leadBandithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01431205981803804882noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-54061393629414457212010-10-23T20:07:32.029-04:002010-10-23T20:07:32.029-04:00You don't even like money!You don't even like money!scheffbdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12390825258658618991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-81379845365618055272010-10-23T12:50:00.461-04:002010-10-23T12:50:00.461-04:00Then Google AdSense needs to pay me the money they...Then Google AdSense needs to pay me the money they stole.Bandithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01431205981803804882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-70879016469812805712010-10-23T03:13:05.382-04:002010-10-23T03:13:05.382-04:00You'll be right there at BWH blogging away bec...You'll be right there at BWH blogging away because it's your job! We've all got a job to do and blogging election results is yours!scheffbdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12390825258658618991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-51255236759388229582010-10-23T02:30:07.701-04:002010-10-23T02:30:07.701-04:00I don't know yet whether I'm going to be h...I don't know yet whether I'm going to be home that evening.Bandithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01431205981803804882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-75056789227483139992010-10-23T02:27:36.232-04:002010-10-23T02:27:36.232-04:00The People are really looking forward to Election ...The People are really looking forward to Election Night, when Tim will eat West Virginia pepperoni rolls and blog live as results come in.scheffbdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12390825258658618991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-72969376354684927552010-10-22T22:47:15.195-04:002010-10-22T22:47:15.195-04:00A few words about polling and pollsters... Polling...A few words about polling and pollsters... Polling is a BUSINESS. That means pollsters make money at what they do.<br /><br />They are hired by (who else) the media. So the results skew GOP until mid-October because that's what their clients want. The media wants to build a narrative of a GOP takeover, so that's what pollsters give them.<br /><br />But when the election gets closer, they strive for accuracy, not building a narrative...so you get more realistic looking polls.<br /><br />I think that is what we see here.<br /><br />Happened in '08, it's happening now.The Reality Based Communityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07202802161174494209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-24813088723316914232010-10-22T22:28:14.323-04:002010-10-22T22:28:14.323-04:00"R.I.P., Mr. C"
?"R.I.P., Mr. C"<br /><br />?Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-25756783641855602192010-10-22T22:28:04.997-04:002010-10-22T22:28:04.997-04:00You've lost. Admit it.You've lost. Admit it.Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-67061228239148946972010-10-22T22:24:25.428-04:002010-10-22T22:24:25.428-04:00That's your response?That's your response?Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-17077563316535159822010-10-22T22:22:54.627-04:002010-10-22T22:22:54.627-04:00So that's your response?So that's your response?Bandithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01431205981803804882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-30616178861415232002010-10-22T22:20:14.270-04:002010-10-22T22:20:14.270-04:001. They're one week old. That's not enou...1. They're one week old. That's not enough time for major change.<br /><br />2. Here:http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf<br /><br />3. Rasmussen. Not Rasmussen Reports.<br /><br />4. It's also more accurate. Republican bias does not equal false.Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-23623151951618185772010-10-22T22:14:54.410-04:002010-10-22T22:14:54.410-04:001) The bad ones are too old.
2) Where did you &qu...1) The bad ones are too old.<br /><br />2) Where did you "show" that Newsweek is the least accurate?<br /><br />3) Even Wikipedia says Rasmussen is Republican.<br /><br />4) The likely voter model has already been shown on other blogs to have a Republican bias.Bandithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01431205981803804882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-68467398225298135282010-10-22T22:09:11.462-04:002010-10-22T22:09:11.462-04:00What I noticed is that I take all of your points a...What I noticed is that I take all of your points and answer them all, whereas you take a fraction of my points, and answer some of that. Your next post after this one should answer the following:<br /><br />1. Why you chose the one good poll out of seven bad ones.<br /><br />2. Why you only trust what I've shown to be the least accurate poll.<br /><br />3. Why you call Rasmussen a Republican poll for no reason whatsoever.<br /><br />4. Why you incorrectly think that likely voter outcomes are the worst method. <br /><br />If you don't answer all of these, I will take it that you gave up in the debate.Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-30885710282440403942010-10-22T22:05:35.045-04:002010-10-22T22:05:35.045-04:00"And guess what? Newsweek shows the Democrats..."And guess what? Newsweek shows the Democrats winning even with the likely voter model!"<br /><br />And Newsweek is a lousy poll!Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-76568283165467589042010-10-22T22:05:10.812-04:002010-10-22T22:05:10.812-04:00That's YOUR response? Taking a snippet of ONE...That's YOUR response? Taking a snippet of ONE PART of my response, and acting as if that's all I said. That's like if I said.<br /><br />"hat's"<br /><br />Seriously? That's your whole response?Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-32653172602991730112010-10-22T22:03:44.530-04:002010-10-22T22:03:44.530-04:00And guess what? Newsweek shows the Democrats winni...And guess what? Newsweek shows the Democrats winning even with the likely voter model!Bandithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01431205981803804882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-70265858055787287362010-10-22T22:02:46.086-04:002010-10-22T22:02:46.086-04:00"And so what if it is a week old?" Serio..."And so what if it is a week old?" Seriously, that's your response?Bandithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01431205981803804882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-13654038310533078272010-10-22T22:02:09.228-04:002010-10-22T22:02:09.228-04:00Newsweek also used the likely voter model too.Newsweek also used the likely voter model too.Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-34584568545952598702010-10-22T22:00:23.230-04:002010-10-22T22:00:23.230-04:00"Likely voter" models are not flawed. T..."Likely voter" models are not flawed. They produce more accurate outcomes then "registered voters". <br /><br />And so what if it is a week old? That still doesn't change the underlying fact that you don't trust the most accurate poll, but you do trust the least accurate.Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-53891873733115616052010-10-22T21:55:34.069-04:002010-10-22T21:55:34.069-04:00The AP poll used the likely voter model that was a...The AP poll used the likely voter model that was already proven to be flawed. Besides, that poll is nearly a week old.<br /><br />Even if the election goes exactly like the average of the previous polls, the Republicans still don't win back Congress.Bandithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01431205981803804882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-14554779093556817152010-10-22T21:54:47.456-04:002010-10-22T21:54:47.456-04:00Care to answer?Care to answer?Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-90801432219051711652010-10-22T21:51:21.671-04:002010-10-22T21:51:21.671-04:00In other words, you read it all, you can't ans...In other words, you read it all, you can't answer it, you know you lost, so you just dismiss the issue. Is the Associated Press a Republican pollster? Their Republican lead is ONE point below Rasmussen's. Does that make all the difference in the world?Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-54920601206945438052010-10-22T21:49:13.728-04:002010-10-22T21:49:13.728-04:00I stopped reading when you said, "Rasmussen i...I stopped reading when you said, "Rasmussen is not a Republican pollster."Bandithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01431205981803804882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-78193019631721228142010-10-22T21:47:56.605-04:002010-10-22T21:47:56.605-04:00In fact, Newsweek was last on that accuracy list. ...In fact, Newsweek was last on that accuracy list. The MOST accurate isn't anything to believe, but the LEAST accurate is.Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6636840023980636857.post-88039248165019466822010-10-22T21:46:48.066-04:002010-10-22T21:46:48.066-04:001. Rasmussen is not a Republican pollster. They ...1. Rasmussen is not a Republican pollster. They actually have very accurate polls. http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf<br /><br />2. Gallup was not discredited. Conservatives are just more likely to vote. <br /><br />3. Polls do not change that dramatically in such a short time. <br /><br />4. You only addressed Rasmussen and Gallup. What about the Associated Press poll? Or any of the others?<br /><br />5. Of the seven polls, six show a Republican lead. One showed a Democratic lead. You chose to focus only on that poll. Instead of saying that all other polls are biased, wouldn't it make more sense to say that the ONE poll showing the Democrats in the lead is wrong, and that it itself is biased?Dominichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16726019506142489479noreply@blogger.com