Monday, March 16, 2015

SurveyUSA doubles down on GOP stupid

SurveyUSA should never be forgiven for publishing a press release before the 2003 Kentucky gubernatorial election saying Ernie Fletcher had already won, but their latest act is really a special kind of dumb.

Without exception, every pollster in last year's election cycle showed the Republicans significantly trailing their performance in the final "election" results. Not just in Kentucky, but all over the country. In any democracy, this would be seen as a sign that the election was rigged, and it would trigger an official investigation of the results. But in the United States, the opposite happens: Pollsters instead tailor their methodology to reflect the rigged election. They do it after each election, in fact, so last year's polls had several cycles of election fraud already built in.

Now SurveyUSA - long worshipped by Kentucky media - is boasting of recalibrating its methodology yet again after last year's polling discrepancy...

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2015/03/10/bluegrass-poll-revamped-improve-results/24718143

You read that right. Instead of challenging the results, SurveyUSA admits that they've begun weighting their polls to account for Republicans rigging the 2014 election. SurveyUSA says their past polls oversampled liberal voters and cell phone users - even though their press releases show that these groups were actually undersampled.

The good news is that even after all of this right-wing number crunching, SurveyUSA's latest poll says all of the Republican candidates for this year's governor election would still trail Democrat Jack Conway by 2 to 10 percentage points. Last year, SurveyUSA's final Senate poll was 10 points off despite being weighted for previous GOP fraud, so if they used last year's methodology, Conway would be ahead by 12 to 20.

If general elections weren't rigged by Republicans, most elections would be just a formality. God only knows what the margin would be. Think of the thumping Teresa Cunningham got in that Supreme Court race. It would be twice as big - maybe more. How much Republican support do you still see on the ground? Make no mistake, GOP support used to be very real. But in 2015???

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. There's 7 months for The Media to hand this one to the GOP like they often do. And there'll be future years for pollsters to double down some more. I warned you.