What??? The Republicans actually picked up a governorship???

Four years ago, things were the opposite of what they are now: Back then, the Democrats got Louisiana, while the Republicans were engulfing most other states with their rotting buttwax. Now the Democrats actually win most states, with one of Republicans' few bright spots being Louisiana.

Louisiana's elections differ from other states in that what's considered the gubernatorial primary happened yesterday - a Saturday - and that it's an open primary where all candidates of all parties run against each other on the same ballot. If a candidate gets over 50%, they're elected governor. If not, there has to be a runoff between the top 2 candidates, which happens in mid-November - well after Election Day in other states. It's possible for the 2 candidates in the runoff to be of the same party.

The only Republican running is congressman and ultraconservative crackpot Bobby Jindal. I didn't consider it even within the realm of possibility that he'd top 50%. A poll by Southeastern Louisiana University had him down at 46%, and even that was considered generous to Jindal. I was certain this would go to a runoff between Jindal and one of the several Democrats who were running.

But Louisianans are shocked at the outcome of this election - in which Jindal somehow got 54%, making him governor without a runoff. I'm as shocked as the voters in that state are, and it's clear already that the so-called election was rigged. With modern polling techniques, you just don't have an 8-point difference between a scientific poll and the actual results if the election is honest. Other countries would consider this a sign the election is inaccurate, but in BushAmerica it's considered a sign the poll is inaccurate.

There's a reason Louisiana might be getting more Republican when other states aren't - but the poll would have counted for it. The reason is, simply put, that so many voters from the state's most Democratic area - New Orleans - which also composes the state's biggest parish (county), were kept from voting. Many hurricane survivors are still officially New Orleans residents, but haven't been able to return home to vote, staying instead in what's supposed to be temporary housing in other states. Before the hurricane, the government wouldn't invest in making poor neighborhoods safer from disasters, and this is the result. The Republicans' mind-numbing bungling after the hurricane should have destroyed the GOP's chances - but some large Republican areas didn't get much damage, and the entire event only energized their hard-charging conservatism. In other words, suburbs versus cities again.

New Orleans's Democratic voters have been chased so far from their own city that an independent who is fairly conservative carried New Orleans, with Jindal a close second. (Together they got 71% there.)

If I was a congressman, the DLC would demand I retract this analysis for being too critical of the Republicans. I won't retract it. I've independently studied electoral geography for 20 years, and that's how it shakes out. Quite frankly, if the hurricane had driven off tens of thousands of Republican voters instead of Democratic voters, there would have been an all-out effort by talk radio and conservative blogs to make sure these GOP voters were able to cast their votes in Louisiana. You know it, and I know it.

Because I assumed this election would go to a runoff, I foolishly bumped a couple of negative stories about Bobby Jindal until after this primary. But hey, now that he's going to be governor, I'll be able to put these stories on the frontburner while he's in office, so hopefully folks in Louisiana can get on his case then and distract him from doing too much damage.