Friday, October 8, 2010

Moderates key to humiliating GOP

This story is the strongest sign I've seen in months that all the Republican bluster about retaking Congress is just that - bluster.

Last night, I found an interesting entry on Public Policy Polling's blog:

It says that if the Republicans win, "they're doing it without having improved their appeal to the center at all since the 2008 election."

More striking than this observation though is the numbers. In 2008, self-described moderate voters went for Obama by a margin of 21%. In the upcoming congressional election, polls show them going Democratic by 30%. Moderates in West Virginia went for Obama by 5%. Now, Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin is carrying moderates in his Senate bid by 29%.

None of this has been picked up on yet by the media.

You don't go from a Democratic wave in 2008 to a Republican wave in 2010 by expanding Democratic support among moderates. You just don't. That doesn't happen. Understand? The Republicans are less popular now than they were 2 years ago, and that's not how you win elections.

Why aren't these numbers borne out by polls of individual contests? Simple: Pollsters don't think that moderate to liberal respondents are likely voters. If you take away the likely voter screen, it's as much of a Democratic rout as the last 2 cycles were.

Either way, the Republicans aren't owed a damn thing in November except a middle finger.


  1. Voter turnout will have a bigger impact than which way moderates slide. Democrats can probably keep many of the moderates that voted for Obama in 2008, but far fewer of them will vote at all this time. Expect fewer Democrats to show up at the polls, too. At the same time, conservatives who didn't bother to vote 2 years ago because they weren't impressed with McCain will turn out this year to vote against Democratic rule.

  2. Democratic support among moderates has grown by 9%. To get a Republican Congress out of that would be pretty far-fetched.

  3. By the way, I haven't seen a single poll for my House district yet. That makes me suspicious.