Saturday, October 30, 2010

Prediction: 56-44 and 233-202

This is the first election cycle in which I have the resources to make an educated prediction of what the partisan breakdown of Congress will be after the election. That Internet is powerful stuff, you understand.

I am predicting - with fairly good accuracy - that the Senate will end up with 56 Democrats (counting 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats) and 44 Republicans. I'm also predicting that the House will end up with 233 Democrats and 202 Republicans. That's give or take a few, of course, but I don't think it's far off at all.

Early voting has been more Democratic than it was in 2006 (the previous midterm), a year that also ended up with the GOP trailing 233 to 202. Checking individual races, I think that's a realistic guess for 2010. This guess may actually be just a tad generous to the Republicans - because EVERY FUCKING PERSON who I meet is voting Democratic. Also, if early voting is any indication, the feared enthusiasm gap is nearly vanquished.

Anybody who hoped the Republicans would suddenly lurch back to life this year after they lost last time and subsequently out-crazied themselves is in for some serious egg on their face. The math just doesn't add up for them retaking Congress. In earlier years, I was sweating bullets at this point, but this time I'm pretty confident. I've checked polls for every district in which polls have been released, and frankly, the GOP is out of luck.


  1. The People will find out if Tim's prediction is right or way, way off base on Tuesday night when he live blogs Election Night results here on the Online Lunchpail! It's the BEST election coverage and commentary you will find anywhere. Make sure you have your West Virginia Pepperoni Rolls read!

  2. Like I said, I don't know yet whether I'll be home that evening. It's a hit-or-miss thing.

  3. Meh..the Repubes lost when they said they would raise the retirement age again.

    Putting your hands in the pocketbooks of the voters is not a winning agenda.

    I am not a fortune teller but I think we are going to see some very nice surprises on election night..and probably closer to home than you think..

  4. "Putting your hands in the pocketbooks of the voters is not a winning agenda."

    Arrarently giving people less money is the equivalent of taking it from them.

    "Meh..the Repubes lost when they said they would raise the retirement age again."

    When. When did that happen?

  5. I predict that when the Republicans win, Tim will whine and cry and say that they cheated.