Prediction: 56-44 and 233-202

This is the first election cycle in which I have the resources to make an educated prediction of what the partisan breakdown of Congress will be after the election. That Internet is powerful stuff, you understand.

I am predicting - with fairly good accuracy - that the Senate will end up with 56 Democrats (counting 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats) and 44 Republicans. I'm also predicting that the House will end up with 233 Democrats and 202 Republicans. That's give or take a few, of course, but I don't think it's far off at all.

Early voting has been more Democratic than it was in 2006 (the previous midterm), a year that also ended up with the GOP trailing 233 to 202. Checking individual races, I think that's a realistic guess for 2010. This guess may actually be just a tad generous to the Republicans - because EVERY FUCKING PERSON who I meet is voting Democratic. Also, if early voting is any indication, the feared enthusiasm gap is nearly vanquished.

Anybody who hoped the Republicans would suddenly lurch back to life this year after they lost last time and subsequently out-crazied themselves is in for some serious egg on their face. The math just doesn't add up for them retaking Congress. In earlier years, I was sweating bullets at this point, but this time I'm pretty confident. I've checked polls for every district in which polls have been released, and frankly, the GOP is out of luck.